Prediction of uncertain structural responses with fuzzy time series

نویسندگان

  • BERND MÖLLER
  • UWE REUTER
  • Uwe Reuter
چکیده

In this paper mathematical methods for prediction of uncertain structural responses with the aid of fuzzy time series are presented. Uncertain measurments of structural loads and responses respectively at equally spaced discrete time points are modeled as fuzzy variables. Hence uncertain measurments over time are considered as time series with fuzzy data. The fuzzy variables are processed on the basis of generally applicable numerical methods for descriptive analysis as well as for stochastic analysis. Algorithms of stochastic analysis are used to forecast fuzzy time series. At this the new fuzzy-ARMA-process is introduced. Forecasts of fuzzy time series provides informationen about future structural responses. The algorithm of analysis and forecast of fuzzy time series are presented in detail and demonstrated by way of numerical examples.

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تاریخ انتشار 2006